Resilience and Opportunity – Factors Behind Recovery, August 2020


The Travel & Tourism sector is amid its largest downturn since World War II. In 2020, international arrivals are forecast to decline more than 50% and domestic visitors more than 30%. Travel demand has been resilient in recovering from previous downturns, so a rebound in tourism is expected, but there are numerous factors that can affect that recovery. 

In our new research briefing, we discuss how those factors can affect the potential for recovery across different countries, and provide indices illustrating this variation for the world’s 25 largest tourism markets. 


Resilience of travel demand is greater for destinations that rely more heavily on travelers from sources that are expected to rebound more quickly – namely, domestic tourists and those from short-haul source markets. 

Michael Shoory, Senior Economist

Michael is currently conducting economic impact analysis and custom research projects.

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There is also the opportunity for growth from changing travel patterns, particularly from residents switching their travel to domestic rather than outbound. We can combine these into an overall Travel Potential Index to illustrate the relative potential for a smooth recovery of a country’s Travel & Tourism sector, as well as associated risks and opportunities.

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